Entertainment analyst Joost van Dreunen has forecasted a turbulent future for Ubisoft, suggesting the company could face privatization or significant restructuring by 2025. This grim prediction comes after a challenging year for the studio, despite its portfolio of blockbuster franchises like Assassin’s Creed, Rainbow Six, and Prince of Persia.
A Year of Struggles
Ubisoft’s 2024 has been marked by underwhelming performances, with releases such as Star Wars Outlaws receiving mixed reactions and raising questions about the company’s broader strategy. The cancellation of XDefiant, Ubisoft’s attempt to rival first-person shooters like Call of Duty, has further highlighted its difficulties.
Once a promising contender, XDefiant struggled to maintain a player base, leading to its planned shutdown. New downloads and registrations have been blocked, effectively ceasing any further investment in the project. This failure is being interpreted as part of a larger issue—what van Dreunen calls Ubisoft’s “stubbornly outdated” development and monetization strategies.
Analyst Predicts Privatization
In his report, van Dreunen states that Ubisoft’s refusal to innovate or adapt to changing market expectations has contributed to a sharp decline in its stock value throughout 2024. He posits that investor pressure and mounting financial troubles could lead to privatization and potentially dismantling the company by 2025.
Rumors of a potential buyout have gained traction in recent months, with investors reportedly urging the company to explore privatization. Ubisoft CEO Yves Guillemot has publicly addressed the speculation but has yet to provide a concrete strategy to restore investor confidence.
Assassin’s Creed Shadows: A Glimmer of Hope?
Van Dreunen acknowledges Assassin’s Creed Shadows as a potential lifeline for Ubisoft. The title, delayed to ensure a polished launch, could help rebuild the company’s reputation. However, the analyst remains skeptical, citing Ubisoft’s declining player trust as a significant hurdle.
Trust, van Dreunen argues, is a form of currency in the gaming industry—one that Ubisoft is rapidly depleting. Recent controversies, including allegations of data obfuscation on Steam, could further erode goodwill among fans.
The Road Ahead
While Ubisoft’s immediate focus remains on delivering its upcoming flagship title, industry insiders and fans alike are bracing for major shifts. Whether Assassin’s Creed Shadows can serve as a turning point or merely a temporary reprieve remains to be seen. One thing is clear: Ubisoft’s journey forward will be closely watched, with 2025 shaping up to be a defining year for the company.
